The president of Commission, who on Wednesday will give his speech on state of EU, will focus its agenda on three issues-trade, immigration and economy
The happy times are blank pages in history books. The last 10 years have not exactly been happy for Europe: existential crisis of recent times will be delight of historians, but EU just out today, an accumulation of calamities –many of m self-inflicted— in mix at least five crises (financial, economic, social, immigration and political), for leaving all those hurricane-force winds, reduced to cards five of a kind of miseries. The euro was one step from breaking through Greece, Union has suffered its first break – Brexit— and gaps in East-West and North-South remain in skin.
The most rabidly optimistic grab largest economic growth of recent years (2%) and failure of populism, which threatened to pull out old demons of closet in Holland and France, to overcome this decade's dark and announce a kind of spring in europe. But big crisis y have seven lives.
- The european court endorses scheme of distribution of refugees in EU
- Juncker against eurodesencanto
- Brussels gives a month to Poland to correct reform that politicized justice
The head of European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, will take this Wednesday pulse of this new rapture of enthusiasm at start of political course. Juncker has every reason to be positive: just a year ago, that same speech was marked to fire by Brexit, dialectic antieuropea of Trump and rise of far right. Europe is reinforced, for time being, of se onslaughts: europeans have seen close up abyss of populism and have said "no, thank you."
Juncker, according to sources, will focus its agenda on three issues: trade, migration, and economic. In commercial, EU wants to take over united States as guarantor of liberal order, and will offer new free trade agreements beyond where Donald Trump teach claws, although y also will announce control of foreign investments in strategic sectors. In immigration, socialcristiano luxembourg, who seems to be in form despite its augur, to explain main lines of next package: reform of asylum, and above all need for countries to return to economic migrants to ir countries of origin. In economic, Juncker will outline reforms of eurozone, although it is conditioned by electoral calendar in German.
"it Will be a speech very political, with new products because y are a little less than two years and is virtually his last chance to say loud and clear what Europe wants," says one of his co-workers. "The constellation of political benefits, because scene has improved and idyll Merkel-Macron allows us to tackle agendas complicated", abounds. Juncker also does not avoid difficulties. The largest are perhaps Brexit and drift of Poland, a Trojan horse against european values. The complexities of Turkey and especially activism of Russia, which will display in just a few days between 100,000 and 120,000 soldiers in some military manoeuvres in vicinity north, not going to fall behind.
These are most important issues of speech.
Economic and Monetary Union: reforms in cribriform architecture of euro. Juncker calls for turning support Mechanism, european (Esm) into a European Monetary Fund (EMF) with all of law before end of 2018. And, after reflections of spring, calls for a budget for countries in crisis, by completing banking union (deposit guarantee fund common and fiscal support of resolution fund to close banks, instead of establishing measures to reduce risk in banks) and by a euro bond light, with no mutualisation of debt, but it will also set up exploratory works for designing eurobonds with all of act to 2025. The thrust of Emmanuel Macron has unlocked, in part, to German position. But more ambitious measures, such as creation of a FME and a budget of euro as true mechanisms of crisis resolution, will come with stark political reality of Europe. With Italy as a potential candidate for next crisis, reform of euro will measure state of form of revived engine franco-German: Merkel, you can access part of French demands, but at same time intended that new FME monitor tax policy (at expense of Commission) and pujará strong link to budget of euro with implementation of reforms: a regime of flexiausteridad germanic difficult to accept in certain latitudes.
Trade: one of lime and anor of sand. Juncker wants to win for Europe space that united States is leaving behind with his rhetoric, protectionist. After agreement in principle with Japan, EU will seek agreements with Australia and will make its look in Asia. But at same time will trigger a movement of retreat: head of Commission will announce its plans to create a mechanism of control of foreign investment in Europe. Brussels pretends that countries that do not comply with rules of employment or commercial unfair competition: you want that if China can buy key industries for Europe, EU can do same thing in China. Juncker takes months stating that europeans "are in favour of international trade agreements, but not of a free-trade naíf".
Migration: asylum and returns. luxembourgish want a rapid reform of asylum system "based on balance between responsibility and solidarity", a phrase that is also repeated for entire economic package. Emphasise that you must follow with removals, one of his proposals failed due to lack of cooperation of foreign ministries. But Brussels is working on a new package of "Migration Management", in which will be more central to external dimension of EU –programmes in neighbourhood south and east, to raise per capita income and reduce flow of arrivals— and one that will have a fundamental role in return of so-called "economic migrants", those who do not have right to apply for refugee status.
Values, narrative, difficulty, and ors. The mandate of Juncker ends after next european elections, in spring of 2019. That gives this discourse a density policy special: ahead approximately 20 months of work, last arreón of your Commission. 2016 was an "annus horribilis", according to a letter from Juncker to president of European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, will be released on Wednesday: now, however, european project has "more wind in sails". The Twenty-eight present for first time in a long time figures of growth on all parties. Unemployment is reduced, though re is still an army of around 20 million unemployed in Union. The Brexit and Trump ", ironically, have helped europeans: y have given glue y needed to discuss reforms essential to club" claims from Harvard professor Peter Hall. "Europe has to take advantage of that advantage and make reforms in 2018: crisis has subsided, but he will return," adds Charles Kupchan, of Center of Foreign Relations. Juncker was proposed to partners five scenarios in White paper presented last spring: his speech on State of Union will be a sixth stage, with recipes of Brussels before Germany and France return to dominate scene.
Politically, luxembourgian wants to send out a clear message of commitment to integration, and enable changes to law to prevent voting by unanimity. Juncker, in addition, emphasis will be put on "positive agenda", according to letter to Tajani, but it will not prevent stepping on puddles. And re is plenty of water on floor: Poland, Brexit, Turkey and Russia (in addition to Catalonia, which in principle falls outside discourse). In Poland, Brussels threat time and again with use of nuclear button ( suspension of voting rights) if substance, control of judiciary by Government. In Turkey, re are voices that advocate for suspending negotiations of access to view of authoritarian drift in Ankara. Russia has nerves to countries of East: military maneuvers of se days, energy negotiations, conflict in Ukraine and role of Moscow in neighborhood East and South to Brussels on permanent alert.
And as for Brexit, advisors Juncker will advise you not to get into shirts of eleven rods, although character of president is pointing in anor direction. One of his main advisers, explained some months ago that Commission devotes to Brexit "half an hour a week." Juncker, with his peculiar style, he said a few days ago his collaborators that output of Uk will takes up "half of each hour."
The speech on State of Union is perhaps his last chance to be remembered as president of Commission for something more than Brexit. But it is also an open door to make it clear ideas of leader socialcristiano about divorce of british.