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The Spanish economy grew in 2015 and 2016 more than what calculated up to now

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The Spanish economy grew in 2015 and 2016 more than what calculated up to now

The National Institute of Statistics review figures of GDP growth and up a tenth in last year and two previous one

And what are reasons for this upward revision of GDP? The INE has redrawn composition of growth in those two years. In 2016, external sector showed even more strength. As with recent data, Spanish exports amounted to 4.8%, a substantial improvement over 4.4 per cent that it had offered before INE. And imports increased by less than indicated: 2.7% instead of 3.3%.

With more exports and less imports, external sector prompted still more economy last year, offsetting worse performance of domestic demand, which has been revised downward from 2.9% to 2.6% growth. This lower force on part of domestic is primarily due to consumption and investment. The consumption expenditure of households grew by 3% compared to 3.2% prior. And chapter of gross capital formation falls in this review of 3.8% to 3.1% increase.

Just opposite of what happens with year 2015, domestic demand is corrected upward from a growth of 3.4% to one of 4%. And reason lies in behavior of investment, which will be shot in 2015 by 8.7%, well above 6.5 per cent that was registered. Redo upside se figures of investment and domestic demand, INE has probably had to reduce increments of se chapters in 2016. And that is why y have gone up in 2015 and lower in 2016.

At current prices, that is including inflation, rate of change of GDP in 2016 amounted to 3.6%, almost equal to that estimated in march. With this, value of GDP at current prices stood at end of 2016 in 1.118.522 million euros, about 5,000 million more than projected earlier due to nominal growth in 2015 is raised from 3.7% to 4.1%. In turn, this means that ratio of debt to GDP will get a small reprieve: when you increase GDP, percentage will fall to approximately about five-tenths on 98.8 per cent forecast by Government at end of 2017. "The fulfilment of public deficit goal will also be facilitated a little bit," says economist of BBVA for Spain, Miguel Cardoso. 

The jobs posted on jobs full time slightly improves with 51,000 workers and more up to 17.4 million. "It is a positive surprise. We have grown to something more than expected, and, in addition, composition of this growth is even more healthy to improve even more in 2016 external sector. In contrast, in 2015 growth is somewhat greater but composition a little worse," stresses Maria Jesus Fernandez, an analyst of Funcas.

This better distribution of growth is more positive factors: "Lately was worried by a fall in savings rate, but this lower feed consumption assumes that probably savings is a little better than previously thought", explains Cardoso.  

MORE INFORMATION

  • The savings rate for families falls to half level reached in 2009
  • Spanish companies are increasing ir investment triple that of euro area
  • The adjustment of crisis is focused on low wages
  • If GDP has recovered, why not both?

Among new known data, attention is called to compensation per employee was up in 2015 1.6% and not 0.4% that had been noted. The normal thing would have been that in that year labour market integration of unemployed persons who charge less do that average salaries dropped. However, in 2015, it recovered in part by return of extra pay to officers. Now, INE already had that information and, refore, it is difficult to explain that salaries should go up on average 1.6% of time that it created half a million jobs a year. However, those are data that have come to INE. On contrary, in 2016, evolution of remuneration average had been stuck at 0%. And now INE makes it worse until a decrease of-0.3%, something more consistent with strong job creation lived.

The INE also improves growth of manufacturing sector, 7% to 7.8% in 2015 and 3.1% to 3.5% in 2016. On or hand, investment on construction goes to register an increase in 2015 of 0.2% add 2.4%. Which in part explains why in 2016 advance in less than estimated in march: 1.9% instead of 2.5% as estimated previously. "The investment in building exclusively residential has had a pattern very irregular, perhaps due to uncertainty generated by lack of Government. However, it did not affect both investment in machinery and equipment because this is directed more towards exports," says Cardoso.

Funcas warning of risk of Catalonia

Funcas, research department of old savings banks, it has lowered its growth forecasts for Spanish economy of 3.2% to 3.1% in 2017 and 2.8% to 2.7% in 2018. In that report notes: “The biggest political risk is situation in Catalonia. Although not detected significant impacts or about economy or about markets, extended indefinitely impasse would affect risk premiums and would increase financial burden on public and private sector due to still high indebtedness. In addition, it could be postponed certain investments, and result in a process of relocation of companies, with consequent effect on recovery and generation of stable jobs”.

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