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40% of indefinite contracts do not survive more than a year

The probability of being fired decreases as workers accumulate more seniority

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40% of indefinite contracts do not survive more than a year

A contract is not synonymous with a job and less stable. In few countries, as in Spain, with highest rates of temporality in Europe, this is a clear reality. It can even be checked with indefinite contracts. 40% of those who are signed does not reach year, according to a study published in Economic blog nothing is free.

In recent years, signing of fixed contracts grows even more than that of temporary ones. It is close to record of this type of contracts that was reached in 2007. However, this fact has a face B: Also in m re is instability and precariousness, as noted Marcel Jansen, Florentino Felgueroso and José Ignacio García-Pérez.

This trio of economists has been studying dynamics of recruitment in Spain based on EPA and Social security figures. So far y had focused on temporary, in strength of those that are of very short duration (a week or less) and in how it is necessary to spend more time as temporary and to sign more eventual contracts to accede to a fixed one.

Now y have taken one step furr and have focused on indefinite. The conclusion reached, with data from 2014 and 2016, is that y do not access labor Stability: 40% do not survive beyond a year and have also seen that of se, six out of 10, terminate by dismissal.

Anor fact that researchers stand out is that "survival rates grow with antiquity", up to 90% of workers with more than three years in company.

Among possible explanations offered by authors, which are not chosen because y "need to be rigorously studied", appear " current contractual regulations or incentives to hiring [bonuses], until those that can be based on That companies do not find suitable candidates to maintain stable working relationships in current context of technological change. "

They also refer to ir research "questioning imperative need for differences between temporary and indefinite recruitment". The three economists are supporters of single contract and also of a punishment, by means of a bonus-malus in contributions to Social security, for those companies that abuse temporary hiring.

Based on conclusions of this study, it confirms force of precarious employment, especially because of its instability, in exit of crisis. In 2017, 21.5 million contracts were signed, hiring record was beat for second consecutive year. And no more indefinite contracts were signed than ten years before, when 2.3 million was reached in a single year.

In addition, temporary contracts are getting shorter: one in four lasts less than a week. Part-time employment for not having found a full-day job ( so-called underemployment) has declined in recent times, but remains high on precrisis situation. And it is now confirmed that work stability has not been fully achieved when an indefinite contract is achieved.


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