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Barclays: “The likelihood of independence in Catalonia is extremely low”

The british bank carried out an analysis in which he states that the Catalan Government is forcing a harsh response from Rajoy for the yes to win voters

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Barclays: “The likelihood of independence in Catalonia is extremely low”

The british bank carried out an analysis in which he states that Catalan Government is forcing a harsh response from Rajoy for yes to win voters

"what Should investors worry about referendum of Catalan independence and its potential consequences?". So begins brief analysis that british bank Barclays has sent this morning to investors and institutional clients. The entity regularly conducts studies on topics of current interest. In dedicated to Catalonia, points out that "although it is likely that vote to fill headlines in period prior to date scheduled for 1 October, likelihood of independence in short term appears to be extremely low". From re, however, points out political consequences of confrontation between regional government and State and reviews uncertainty that will surround coming months.


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  • CEOE supports “ actions necessary” to comply with legality in Catalonia

Barclays is in addition to analysts and experts who have evaluated possible impact of independence. The markets, for moment, do not seem to consider it an immediate problem. Moody's has already indicated that he hoped that re would be no independence in short term, but advisó that occur, yes be a problem for solvency of Catalonia and State. The rating agency Fitch noted that it saw "little credible" secession, although he also warned of growing tension between catalonia and central Government.

The Barclays bank made a report in three parts: what is already known, what is felt and what is not known. In first section, on what is known, emphasises that " voters separatists do not have a majority. Polls put this number in little more than 40%. In addition, Constitutional Court has declared illegal referendum and, in all probability, declare unlawful any possible unilateral declaration of independence". On ir forecasts, suggest that y believe that " strategy of Catalan Government could be to force a strong response on part of central Government, y could persuade more voters in Catalonia to support independence".

In block things that we can sense but are not at all clear, he stresses that referendum is convened on 1st of October, but it is not clear if y are being held. "It seems likely that polling stations officials (in public schools) are not open, as ordered by judiciary, or at least all". And he adds that it is unlikely that participation is greater than 50%, but likely to win or. "In any case, we think that regional Government will call new elections. CKD is far ahead in polls, which would mean Oriol Junqueras (leader of ERC) is likely to become next president of Catalonia. As in past, ir political agenda would be aimed at persuading more voters to support independence".

In block that are considered to be absolutely unknown, Barclays arranaca recalling that "independence seems very unlikely in short term," and adds: "The markets have been fairly optimistic up until now (and with reason, in our opinion)". 

however, risks do exist in medium term: "Is much less clear how support for independence will evolve over medium term. That path would largely depend on policies and responses of both parties," he recalls. "There could be triggers that make that short term path was not linear, which could lead to an escalation." And cites three elements that would destabilize things: "a spark of violence; a disproportionate response by any of parties; or perhaps application of article 155 by central government to withdraw powers of autonomous community of Catalonia".


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