The alarm signals for economic cost of secessionist crisis in Catalonia are beginning to be intense and continuous. While Government recognized (in a little-argued way) in its budget plan that cost for growth would be three-tenths of GDP — forecasting growth for 2018 would fall from 2.6% to 2.3% — The independent tax authority calculates cost of A hairpin crisis of between four-tenths and 1.2 points of GDP, depending on time political crisis lasts; It could cost Spaniards up to 13.4 billion. The Airef is right; It is not same a short-term crisis that can be resolved in one or two months than a conflict that has been recysted for 2018.Previous Editorials
An impossible goal (15/10/2017)
Threat to euro (14/10/2017)
At moment, economic impact of procés is manifested in detriment to national economy. The public treasury yesterday paid a positive margin for issuance of three-year bonds and had to pay more expensive 10-year obligations and bonds to 30. In Catalonia, economic indicators fall rapidly. The real estate market is practically stagnant, consumption drops alarmingly ( Minister of Economy announced yesterday that sales on large Catalan surfaces since October 1 have fallen 20%) due to painful climate of uncertainty and Tourism reserves throughout autonomous community plummet at rates of 15%. The deterioration of Catalan economy will have a second-round effect on Hispaniola. But contraction of consumption and flight of investments will affect Catalonia first and more intensely.
The situation is economic alert. The government would have to explain foreseeable deadlines for stabilization and resolution of crisis and to have economic actions for different scenarios depending on time. Because it is unclear that we are facing a crisis that is resolved before 2018.
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