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Costs of Independence

The most affected will be the Catalan workers and unemployed, not the bourgeoisie

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Costs of Independence

For years independenceists promised Catalans country of Neverland. Only announcement of independence has plunged Catalonia into its worst institutional and social crisis since civil war and has provoked economic chaos. For first time in decades independenceists feel that y are on an icy lake that begins to crumble and y cannot prevent ir faces from showing panic.

The main risk for an economy with high external debt, rating of junk bond and without access to international credit was financial instability. The Catalan banks survived two world wars, a civil war, post-war period, oil crises, stagflation, bankruptcy of Rumasa, housing bubble, Lehman bankruptcy, fall of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and rescue of 2012.

Only announcement of independence forced m to change ir headquarters. Fortunately y are under protection of euro and ECB and insurance of Spanish deposits and that has slowed down worst scenario that could have caused an intense destruction of employment in Catalonia and that would have spread to rest of Spain. And y would have provoked anor crisis of euro of greater intensity than that provoked Syriza in Greece in 2015.

But independence adventure will not come out free and main victims will not be companies or bourgeoisie, are workers and Catalan unemployed. We still do not have data to accurately measure damage generated but will be substantial in long run. In short term main impact will be for tourist jobs. The image of instability in streets of Barcelona joins those of terrible terrorist attacks in August and has reduced arrival of tourists.

Every day conflict is prolonged, greater damage to workers in sector, especially for those who are in a more precarious situation as is case with floor waitresses. Tourists, when tension passes, will return to Barcelona which is a wonderful city and Catalan coast where y enjoy good wear and excellent value for money.

More durable and more costly for workers will have flight of companies. In two weeks, independenceists have done great damage to brand and reputation of Barcelona and Catalonia that cost 40 years to build. The only comparable precedent is Quebec. There was a flight of companies and most of m didn't come back. After process political instability and social fragmentation continued and Quebec lost population and became impoverished in relative terms with Toronto (Ontario). High-skilled multinational workers were able to flee impoverishment. Workers with lower qualifications and salaries were most affected.

If independenceists return to law and to institutions to achieve a resolution of cooperative conflict, wounds provoked can be closed, although y will leave scars. If y continue this paranoia that y know is doomed to failure, y will inflict great harm on many innocent Catalans.

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