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Return all macroeconomic medals

Spain still has a primary public deficit and the volume of debt, fattened from 2012, will be a heavy burden when interest rates rise

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Return all macroeconomic medals

On occasion of Faust report of International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Spain (re is nothing, a forecast of growth of 2.8% for this year, a revision of four tenths that is largest of advanced economies) and in order to degild a little medal that is Co Lgarán Rajoy, Escolano and Montoro on account of report, we would have to move veil of macroeconomic virtuality, that statistical night in which all cats are brown and take a look at back of Spanish economic policy. Few rechemists are more ramshackle in Western world. And not because re are doubts about growth; In fact it is very likely that this year will exceed 3%. This is acute structural weaknesses of economy that government, author of some and accomplice of ors, seems unable to accept or diagnose. The only economic policy that really exists today is to show parawells that, from a distance, y have to demonstrate on Spain international institutions from a sidereal distance.

Reality has a worse face. It is not even necessary to enter labor market ( bill payer of crisis) to point broken and unstitched. The Spanish economy, for vain of its genius strategists, still has a primary deficit (not counting interests), a mismatch that for example Greece has already eliminated; Deficit reduction has been achieved through effects of cyclical recovery. Not a single euro has been cut in structural deficit, so it should be inferred that effort of government management has been scarce or unfortunate. For this y have served cuts (suicidal, would say a political conscious) in public investment, which have sunk spending on research or infrastructure?

The balance of debt policy, chained to supposed correction of deficit, produces by itself fear and tremor. Total debt exceeds 98% of GDP; It almost doubled account before crisis. It would be admirable, a spectacle of nature, for any minister in economic area to explain, with temper and seriousness, how much it will cost public finances to pay interest on that debt when y begin to raise interest rates. That will rise, starting at 2019. It could also explain what impact financing of this huge mass of debt will have on growth. The extravagant policy of financial stability, only one that could make forget devastating labor policy, puts Spanish economy in a position of dangerous weakness no longer before a new debt crisis (some see it reach distance, due to Unbridled growth of global debt) but in face of a simple change of ECB's policy.

Then return all macroeconomic medals, as Cristina Cifuentes has returned master. Almost all of self-attributed achievements since 2014 on recovery can be best explained by ECB's interest-rate policy and by a pro-cyclical policy, imposed from Brussels, which will spend an expensive minute in next two years. If it is true that Spain already enjoys a recovery — an economic-mamatical term that little says about well-being. Escolano and Montoro should be designing an anticyclical policy; That is to say, by climbing taxes and investments.

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