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The AIREF estimates that Spain would grow a tenth more without the political crisis in Catalonia

The Fiscal authority believes that the central state and Social Security will breach the deficit this year and that municipalities and autonomous Communities shall comply with it loosely

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The AIREF estimates that Spain would grow a tenth more without the political crisis in Catalonia

The Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority (AIREF), institution responsible for ensuring sostenibildiad of public accounts, estimates that Spanish Economnía would grow a tenth of GDP more this year without political tensions in Catalonia. Escrivá, president of institution, has recalled that economic forecasts of last October, in full independence Challenge were troubling. Although it recognizes that situation in economic field has been standardized, re are scars of political crisis. "The October episode was a transitory episode that was diluted as to its economic impact," he said. And he goes on: "The Catalan economy was growing at 2017 several tenths PIR above Spain. And that was reversed. The Catalan economy is now growing at a significant pace but is growing below Spanish average. " Escrivá has advanced: "Our forecasts show, if Catalonia had grown as it grew before (from 1-0), that added growth of Spanish economy would be a tenth higher." That is, according to calculations of Airef, Spanish GDP could grow this year 2.8% instead of 2.7% predicted by central government and endorsed by Airef itself.

More information
  • Fiscal authority criticizes slow reduction in public debt
  • Independent fiscal authority sees "very tight" deficit target 2.2% for 2018
  • The tax authority believes that municipalities are overfunded

The institution, created in 2013 by indication of Brussels, predicts that central administration and Social security will fail to meet its budgetary objective of public deficit this year. On contrary, it calculates that municipalities and Autonomous Communities have ample margin to reach ir objectives. The combination of both situations, explains José Luis Escrivá, will allow Spain to close year with a deficit of 2.3% of GDP, according to Avandado president of Airef during his appearance in Committee on Budgets of Congress. A deviation very close to target set by Brussels.

The Fiscal authority recalls, however, that budget hole will be somewhat deeper if public resources are taken into account to rescue broken motorways. In this case, budgetary imbalance will go to 2.5% of GDP, three tenths more than European Commission's limit. Although in 2019, when it is envisaged that same routes will be reliciten, it will be an extraordinary income of a similar amount.

Escrivá has analyzed economic environment before issuing an opinion on general budgets of state, which are currently being processed in Congress. "The Spanish economy is growing healthier than ever, but it maintains weaknesses," said Escrivá. At this point it has listed high level of public debt (close to 97% of GDP, high rate of unemployment (still around 16%) and inequality (increases difference in income) as main vulnerabilities of Spanish economy.

More realistic income

The tax authority believes that bias in income forecasts seems to have declined over previous years. In budgets of previous years government has tended to overvalue revenues from tax collection. A practice that served for Airef to reproach him.

In fact, institution chaired by Escrivá estimates that average deviation of revenue budgets between 2008 and 2016 was more than 1% of GDP, equivalent to more than 10 billion euros per year.

In 2018 budgets that bias has been reduced. The Airef sees only a slight risk in income tax for tax cut included in this year's public accounts, which leaves taxpayers free to earn less than 14,000 euros per year. As well as or tax winks to families with children or dependents.

The AIREF estimates that se measures have a joint impact of 2.2 billion euros, a estimacióin that coincides with that made by Government in draft budgets.

In rest of tax figures, AIREF believes that forecasts are adjusted. But Escrivá alert of situation of corporate tax, because companies have accumulated many negative taxable bases during years of crisis (for losses of those years), a circumstance that is deteriorating collection that companies provide .  Therefore, " gap between accounting outcome and taxable bases and accrued tax is expected to be maintained." "We are on 1999 fundraiser," warned Escrivá.

The president of AIREF has described growth of exports of Spanish companies, increase in aggregate investment (it grows more than European average and without debt) and strength of private consumption as main levers of growth. And he predicts that economic cycle will keep up for a few more years.  "In Spain, much more is being invested than in Europe. We are having a biased crecicmiento to investment in equipment assets and this tends to anticipate growth. In addition, this investment is being financed with capital. When self-financing investments are made, allocation of resources tends to be better and investments more efficient, "he said.

"All this leads us to think of a growth similar to last year is plausible and we consider macro as prudent", he sentenced Escrivá. "The problem is that inadequate budgetary targets have been set for administrations approved by this House." And he explained that, according to calculations of Airef, "in local corporations and Autonomous Communities have very loose objectives, against some very improbable in Social security and administration of state. When aggregate is made ( global objective) is achievable, but framework of which we have endowed is wet paper in this sense.

Escrivá has deshelled situation of each administration. But he has put special emphasis on municipal accounts. He believes that city councils are overfunded and although he has not said it expressly suggests that local funding should be balanced with autonomous community.

Municipal sufficiency

Local corporations have a structural surplus. It is explained because y have a more photophosphorylation income structure. And y also have more tax capacity (IBI raises less of its potential and that difference is growing).  "We have to do something with those 7 billion (surplus)," Escrivá claimed. This has recalled that expenditure of town halls has been moderated, because municipal competitions are very limited. "They have límies that establish where y can carry social spending." And he has alluded to fact that in autonomous communities re are some 300,000 people who are pending aid of unit, which have a cost of around 3 billion. "And town halls have 7 billion," remarked Escrivá.

During his appearance, president of Airef has recalled that municipalities have not increased ir public spending all that pemitiría rule of expenditure. A circumstance that evidences his "slack". "They are not restricted by spending rule," he emphasized. "And in or adnministraciones re are tremendous strains of spending."

To abound in its argument, it has explained that members are placing ir budget surpluses (y have been getting excendentes higher than 5 billion annually) in bank deposits from 2012. "The municipalities have already 24 billion in banks. This year will rise anor 7 billion, "has launched


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