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The immigrant population will double in 2050 in the EU's four major economies

The Bank of Spain projects that Germany, France, Italy and Spain will be the biggest pole of attraction

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The immigrant population will double in 2050 in the EU's four major economies

Demographic projections, such as OECD's latest report on pensions and ageing, tend to have a dead angle: y find it hard to see migratory movements coming. "Simplistic" assumptions are used, as indicated in an article recently published by Bank of Spain, and it is assumed that y remain constant at current levels. In study of Bank of Spain, however, a more sophisticated simulation is used to project international migration to 2050. And its main conclusion is that great economies of EU, Spain included, will be main attraction, with twice immigrant population that in 2010. An entry that would alleviate problems that are foreseen for labour market and pension system.

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The method that exposes article of Bank of Spain relates demographic pressure and migration, but also takes into account geographical proximity, difference of quality of life, relative shortage of workers in destination countries, or cultural factors in common, Like tongue. In analysis, it is projected that " total number of migrants would pass from 190 million people in 2010 to 334 million in 2050". Or what is same, that would go from 2.8% to 3.5% of world's population.

That increase in 144 million immigrants would come mostly from India (30 million more) and sub-saharan Africa (almost 60 million more), "due to strong population growths" projected in both regions. And it is geographical proximity between African continent and continental Europe that leads to analysis published by Bank of Spain to anticipate that four largest continental European economies (Germany, Spain, France and Italy) would monopolize greatest flow of "Immigrants among developed countries."

More workers

In se four countries, immigrant population would double as y passed from 27.7 million to 56.5 million immigrants in 2050. The analysis of supervisory body does not detail what specific evolution would be for Spain — sources of central bank indicated that disaggregated data had not been published. And it warns, in any case, that calculation for Spain could be "overestimated" for a decade (2000-2010), "which attracted a number of immigrants without parallel in previous decades" or in recent years.

In previous decade, immigrant population — born outside Spain — tripled (of just over two million people to about 6.5 million). After several years in Baja, in 2016 it stood at 5.9 million. If it is considered that it will have an evolution similar to one that article of Bank of Spain expects for whole of four large European economies, it would reach 12 million of people in 2050. Or what is same, an injection of potential workers (81% of current immigrants is between 20 and 65 years compared to 60% of people born in Spain) for an ageing country.

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