It will take some time for economic damage caused by procés to be quantified. Today we offer partial estimates and statistics — inferred correctly, but with logical inaccuracies — of monthly or quarterly data. But fact is that effects on Catalan and Spanish economy are a continuous path that must be assessed in all its breadth. Yes, we know that unemployment is growing more than in or communities since unfortunate metaphor of train wreckage, that employment grows less, that consumption decreases; Also investment and that tourism, one of strengths of Catalan economy, is retracting. We know that more than 2,000 companies have left Catalonia, which, despite fact that production and profitability remain in community, remains a clear-cut vote against unilateral call and risk of leaving Europe and a warning for whom T Enga to calculate tax revenues of Generalitat in future. But we still do not know extent of stain, its depth and its duration.
Above all, it is still unclear what needs to be done to recover with some urgency confidence in Catalan economy, attacked today by virus of uncertainty. The term "uncertainty" is handled with some frivolity in emergency analyses. Uncertainty describes situation of a system in which it is not possible to calculate social, economic or political variables that determine profitability of an investment. In such a scenario, decision to invest tends to zero; It is not a matter of falling new investment, but tends to disappear. This is case of Catalonia during procés. The independentist argument, manufactured for own consumption by way of placebos that are supplied knowing that no one believes in m, that it has been action of Government (violence, article 155) that has caused uncertainty is irrelevant and detrimental. Because even if premise is accepted, truth is that this action came determined by threat of secession and of leaving Europe, which is what worries those who invest; And because pertinacity in analysis error pushes consumers, tourists, investors and financial flows to assume that threat has not ceased.Learn More
- The economy stifles secessionism
- The anticipation of a record share gives encouragement to Constitutionalists
It is not easy to dissolve uncertainty, because what has occurred once (attempted secession) may recur again; To be exact, it tends to be repeated, according to Hannah Arendt's keen opinion. Since cause of economic damage is political, first step of solution must also be political. The effectiveness of this step will be measured as of December 21, but not only for immediate effect of electoral result, but by expectation that re will be a turn — implicit or explicit, but better second — of parties that defended DUI towards Positions of legal certainty and institutional loyalty. Note that both terms are strongly united, because laws must be those that commit Catalan economy to national market and because constitutional loyalty is one that ties Spanish economy to European economy.
Without that first step, path to recovery of trust seems long and tortuous. Partial prescriptions are not valid (a tax incentive plan does not replace legal certainty); The decision and solution are political.