The strangest election campaign of how many have been developed in Catalonia started last night with a growing mobilization of non-independence voters and without major secessionist leaders being able to ask for a vote at conventional rallies. Citizens appears as party that is best capitalizing situation to point that CIS poll made public this Monday puts him in a position of technical tie with winner, Republican. The independence block hit first posters knowing that former president Carles Puigdemont and leader of Junts per Catalunya will continue in Brussels at least until 14th December and that Oriol Junqueras, head of Republic of Republican, will continue in Prison during campaign.Learn More
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The Constitutionalist parties and, in particular citizens, begin to see fruits of campaign of activation of ir electorate that began with demonstrations that filled Barcelona in October and November starring Catalans against Independence and that until n had remained silent before hypermobilization of independence. Now it's about moving this boiling from streets to polls. and formation of Albert Rivera and Inés Arrimadas seems to be in a position to achieve it. The CIS survey made public this Monday points in this direction.
Citizens could be most voted party (22.5%), something unthinkable in Catalonia just a year ago, when independence seemed to have no rival able to tutearle at polls. The growth of citizens and, to a lesser extent, Partie dels socialistes, neutralizes fall of PP. Toger y remain with 59 or 60 deputies, far from absolute majority of Parliament, located in 68 seats. But its thrust complicates much that this craved majority can achieve independenceists who, toger, would remain one or two seats of absolute majority. So, independence, which until now had a majority in seats but not in votes, can also remain without parliamentary majority. Catalunya in Comú-Podem would be arbiter of situation.Junqueras without campaign
The drawing made by CIS survey is again that of a rural Catalonia turned into independence but does not achieve absolute majority despite overrepresentation of se areas in Parlament. Doubts are now wher constitutionalism will be able to continue to increase mobilization of more urban electorate and how independence of Supreme Court Judge Pablo Llanera to maintain in prison Oriol Junqueras, director of Interior Joaquim Forn and leaders of Catalan National Assembly and Cultural Òmnium.
Republican will, who was seen as a winner of elections at great distance from second force, now sees with concern not only thrust of citizens, but also how candidacy of Junts per Catalunya is taking shape. In fact, CIS makes it clear that Catalans ' favorite to be President is Puigdemont (28.1%), well above Junqueras (16.6%).
The campaign also starts with obvious symptoms of discomfort among independence parties. Not only have y not been able to lock a unitary list, but ir respective programmes are as disparate as y are inconcrete when it comes to addressing territorial issue, key issue of se elections. Neir ERC nor Junts per Catalunya say, for example, if y think — and how — "implement" republic as y claim y will make ir candidates. The rivalry between former partners of Junts PEL is increasing and in ERC, for example, messages are launched ensuring that PDECAT plays with advantage for fact of having his candidate in Brussels and not in prison as Junqueras. The independenceists began campaign last night with references to those who continue to call "political prisoners", and welcoming six counselors who did go out yesterday at liberty. Once out of prison his real involvement in campaign is still anor unknown.
The maintenance of Junqueras in prison is also not pleasing to constitutional candidates, who will have to get so that electorate will not be influenced by sentimental issues. It is not easy to debate when your opponent is in prison, y admit private campaigners.
In face of this situation, risks are minimal. Each match has already perfectly designed its strategy that it expects not to move a millimeter until 21st. In case of PSC y are presented as only party able to resew seams that procés has broken in Catalonia, while citizens and PP dispute capacity to re-establish constitutional order.