A few hours before most decisive and atypical campaign of Catalonia started, and shortly after judge's decision to put Oriol Junqueras in prison, Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) has released its pre-election poll for Parlament that It will emerge from autonomic elections of December 21st. According to this data, this noon, citizens will be most voted force and independence parties would be left without majority in votes or in seats.Learn More
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According to poll December 21 elections will be won by ERC with 32 deputies, practically tied with citizens (31-32). The third position would be for Junts per Catalunya, candidacy of former president Carles Puigdemont, with 25 or 26 deputies. In fourth position is Partie dels socialistes (21) followed by Catalunya in Comú (9) and CUP (9). The PP would be in last position with 7 seats. With this estimation independence parties remain with 66 seats, with two of absolute majority.
In votes citizens will win elections according to CIS, with 22.5% of votes. However, current electoral system, which premiums vote in less populated provinces, would give it fewer seats than to ERC, which would take 20.8% of votes. The independence parties would stay away from absolute majority also in votes, as sum of ERC, Junts per Catalunya and CUP adds 44.4%.
In elections of 2015, ERC and Junts per Catalunya attended toger and achieved 62 deputies. The CUP got 10; Catalunya in Comú-Podem, 11; Citizens, 25; PSC, 16 and PP, 11.
In recent survey conducted by Metroscopia for country, Parlament emerged on December 21 was a tie in votes between independence bloc and constitutionalist. Both would achieve 46%, while in elections of 2015 independence reached 47.7% and three purely constitutionalist parties added a 39.1%, despite non-independence n surpassed 50% by integrating Commons. In this survey, conducted between 20 and 22 November, Secessionism could lose absolute majority by a seat.
ERC, according to Metroscopia, would be most voted party — with 26.5% and 39 deputies — while Junts per Catalunya ( PDeCAT electoral mark) would achieve 13.6% and 21 seats. The CUP María Siete parliamentarians and 5.9% of votes. Citizens consolidated as main force of opposition, with 25.3% of votes and 35 deputies, while PSC climbed three disputes, up to 19 with 14.9%.