Historical turnaround in Citizens ' political preferences. The two parties that have governed Spain since 1982 traverse ir worst time of last 35 years and, for first time, are surpassed by citizens and we can. According to barometer of month of May prepared by Metroscopia for country, training led by Albert Rivera would still be with great difference most supported party if today held general elections, with 29.1% of votes. In second position would be united we can, with 19.8, 2%. The PP would fall to 19.5% and PSOE would be last with 19%.
The results of Metroscopia survey, held between 7 and 9 May, leave no room for doubt and prolong a month trend drawn since last fall: old parties fall, new grow. The traditional bipartisanship of Spanish democracy had been in crisis for several years due to emergence of two new forces, citizens and we can, but what is now detected is a new phase of this convulsion: PP and PSOE are becoming mere actors Side of political scene. If trend persists in coming months, election debacle can be historic.
Citizens is still preferred party at moment by Spaniards. With 29.1% of votes, Rivera-led training reaches its best in a survey, remains in lead for fifth consecutive month and extends distance from its immediate tracker to 9.3 points. With se results, citizens could overcome with slack 110 seats in Congress and be in a position to form government.More information
- 65% of popular voters prefer that Rajoy is not candidate
- Rivera, on CIS: "We are near victory"
- The slow descent of PSOE
- A hundred months describing state of mind of Spaniards
The great novelty of barometer is that United Coalition can take second position, with 19.8% of supports and a rise of 1.5 points in last month. This fact confirms upward trend of those of Pablo Iglesias, probably as a result of greater agitation of street. However, we can and ir confluences remain below 21.1% reached in elections of 2016.Life'
The life of United can is due to its ascent, but also to plummeting that record during last times PP and PSOE. The party that leads Mariano Rajoy is left anor nine tenths this month and stands at 19.5%. And something similar happens to PSOE, which stays in fourth position with 19%. If this data were to be confirmed in an election, it would be worst results of story for both parties.
The most obvious evidence that something is moving in Spanish political panorama is that sum of citizens and united we can clearly surpass that of PP and PSOE and is already close to 50% of electorate. The first two reach 48.9%, while or two remain at 38.5%. Just two years ago, in elections of June 2016, situation was inverse: 34.2% compared to 55.7%.
All data from Metroscopia Barometer show that a progressive transfer of PP votes to citizens is occurring, but same is not happening between left-wing formations. In fact, only 3% of voters of Pedro Sánchez two years ago would now pass to can. Where are voters who lose PSOE? Except for a 10% that has been passed on to citizens, vast majority are demobilized and in abstention, that of being today elections would raise five points, up to 35%.
Precisely difference between us can and PSOE is because former is able to better retain ir voters. Thus, of Spaniards who opted for formation of churches two years ago it remains faithful 58%, compared to 49% that registers PSOE. And something similar happens in field on right: citizens retain 70% of ir constituents, while PP to just 42%.
However, except dominance in head of party of Rivera, which seems pretty solid for moment, everything else is to see how it evolves in coming months, as we can, PP and PSOE just separate eight tenths and that is practically a tie if you Note that error margin of survey is 2.1%.A majority of Spaniards prefer that re be elections
The May Metroscopia barometer for country asks citizens if y believe that opposition should force early call for elections, it is understood that y are submitting a motion of censure against Mariano Rajoy. And answer is affirmative, but not excessively forceful. 55% of Spaniards believe that it would be better to have polls as soon as possible, but a 40% think orwise. As expected, electors of United can and of PSOE are mainly partisans that it concludes already mandate of Rajoy. This is opinion of 76% of those who support Pablo Iglesias and 70% of those who do it for Pedro Sánchez.
The party where more division is appreciated regarding possibility of new elections being citizens. In fact, 50% of its electorate is contrary to that idea, while 48% do support it. And in PP rejection of anticipated elections reaches 68%.
As already seen in previous barometers, general feeling that Spanish is that time of Rajoy is over. That creates 86%, including 63% of electorate of PP itself.