The goal that Catalan independence has imposed on 21-D is to achieve a majority in both votes and seats. However, survey of Sociological Research Centre (CIS) published yesterday shows a reversal of ERC, PDeCAT and CUP. They lose majority y have in Parlament, lowering five seats to 67, and reduce ir percentage of vote 3.4 points. Citizens, for first time, graze most voted list.
In general, CIS shows a panorama of very complicated post-election alliances for both independence and so-called Constitutionalist bloc, where PP, citizens and PSC are. But case of secessionists is more complicated as poll shows a waning hegemony, and for first time citizens could be most voted force. The campaign of Independentists has basically focused on asking for an undeniable majority before an election that y consider "illegal and illegitimate", and y face electoral appointment as a plebiscite against what y call " tripartite of 155" and a guarantee to Unilateral declaration of independence of last October. More than 29% of respondents confess that it is still unclear which ballot will be chosen.Click on photo
The independenceists, according to poll, would obtain on December 21 67 deputies, one less than majority in Catalan chamber. The CIS gives it 32 deputies to ERC, same number that would obtain citizens. Junts per Catalunya, candidacy of former president Carles Puigdemont, would take 25 or 26. The CUP would lose a seat staying in nine. This is a result that contrasts with 72 seats with which it now counts secessionism in Parlament. Junts PEL Yes, coalition formed by Republican Republic and extinct Convergència, achieved 62 seats in elections of 2015 whereas Anticapitalists obtained ten.Learn More
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The sum of ERC, Junts per Catalunya and CUP María 44.4% of votes, according to CIS. In last autonomous elections, three groups achieved 47.9% of votes. That is, y would lose 3.4 percentage points. The survey was conducted between 23 and 27 November and 3,000 people were interviewed.
After electoral call, carried out by President Mariano Rajoy under auspices of article 155 of Constitution, independence parties failed in ir intention to agree on a unitary list. The unity in secessionism that had allowed illegal referendum on 1 October to move forward was blown up by clashes over management of Declaration of Independence. One of arguments with which y tried to make it to pass was that separate lists would allow to maximize vote, something that CIS of entry does not appear to reflect. Junts PEL did obtain 27-S 62 deputies. The sum of candidacies that lead Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras would only achieve 58 seats, according to this survey.
Citizens in Barcelona
The bloc of constitutionalist parties is 44.3% of votes, which means 59 or 60 seats. Citizens currently has 25 seats and would be able to add seven in elections on December 21. The fourth position would be for Partie dels socialistes (21) followed by Catalunya in Comú-Podem (NINE). Participation, a fundamental fact, could rub 90%, according to survey. On last election date, it was 77.4%.Junqueras, only candidate who approves
Ironies of statistic: leader of preference, Oriol Junqueras, is politician best valued by Catalans but respondents prefer Carles Puigdemont as future president of Generalitat. This is shown in last survey of CIS, published yesterday.
Junqueras is only leader who approves. It obtains a score of 5.12, followed by Xavier Doménech, of Catalunya in Comú-Podem (4.79) and of Puigdemont, with a 4.76. The one who gets worse qualification is popular Xavier Garcia Albiol, with a 1.83.
Curiously, when you ask who you would prefer as next president of Generalitat, respondents point to expresident Carles Puigdemont (28.1%). It is followed in preference by socialist Miquel Iceta (15.8%) and Oriol Junqueras (15.6%).
By provinces, citizens would get a loose victory in Barcelona, with 23.4% of votes and 21 seats. ERC would be second force in this demarcation, with 17 seats. In all or provinces independenceists would win. In Girona would Junts per Catalunya, with six seats. In Lleida, ERC would get five deputies. The situation changes in Tarragona, where polls show a close duel between Republicans and citizens to occupy first place. The party of Junqueras would achieve in that province five seats and that of Inés Arrimadas, between four and five.
The CIS draws a very closed panorama in which key of governability would have coalition of left among formations leading Pablo Iglesias and Ada Colau. A leftist tripartite (ERC, Catalunya in Comú-Podem and PSC) would not obtain governability. It would stay in 62 seats, six below absolute majority.