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Socialist voters see more future in the Citizens ' project

The PSOE suffers a growing flight of voters towards the party of Albert Rivera which is located, according to Metroscopia, in about 900,000 votes

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Socialist voters see more future in the Citizens ' project

Citizens begin to pose a problem for PSOE, if party of Pedro Sánchez fails to stop increasingly important flight of its voters towards formation of Albert Rivera. The X-ray that projects last Metroscopia survey for country, corresponding to month of February, leaves worrying data for Socialists who above all have to do with increasing capacity of citizens to attract ir electorate. The PSOE loses about 900,000 votes in favor of citizens and only receives around 300,000 of can, while ir voters hesitate to identify ir own project.

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  • GRÁFICOEstimación of election results and most valued leaders

The PSOE is now in third position with a 20.1% in voting intention, according to Metroscopia, less than a point of PP but more than eight citizens, while we can be out of competition to three with 16.8%. Sanchez's party loses a point and a half compared to previous month and almost three points compared to last November. Although leader of PSOE has said that he does not feel concerned by "League of Rights", truth is that formation of Albert Rivera has also been put in league.

The Socialists began year with a voter escape to 13% citizens, which in February has grown to 18%. That is about 900,000 voters fled, according to calculations of October Institute ( transfer of citizens to PSOE is only 3%), which could increase because study also detects that at this time 17% of those who voted in 2016 Sanchez are declared Undecided (hesitate to abstain or go to vote and, in this case, party to do so). The PP is in any case main recipient of bite of citizens, which takes 28% of its voters (2.2 million).

The phenomenon also has added little favorable to PSOE that we can is succeeding in stopping its desertion towards its competitor on left. In February, Pablo Iglesias reduced to less than half percentage of his voters willing to vote for Pedro Sánchez: from 13% to 6%. The consequence is that PSOE suffers and begins to lose recovered since Sanchez defeated in primaries of May 2017, because what is left on one hand — in citizens — no longer compensates for or — with we can —. It is now, according to Metroscopia, at almost three points less than result of latest generals.

The explanation may be in a striking weakness of PSOE that reflects survey. The party is one that presents lowest level of identification of its project among its own voters in last general election. Only 39% of Socialists believe that ir party has a future project for country, compared to 79% of citizens, for example. But even socialist voters see plan for Spain of Albert Rivera more clearly. This is what 43% of Sanchez's electorate believes in 2016.

The leader of PSOE has started precisely 2018 with a proposal of "Ten agreements of country" that will take to Parliament in second half of year. The Socialist leadership has parked its idea of plurinationality of Spain, main novelty with which Sanchez won primaries.

Parliamentary work

More data underpin risk that citizens assume for PSOE. 56% of Socialists approve parliamentary work of party but very close to that of citizens (which likes a 53%). Last week, Sanchez asked his deputies an effort to revitalize ir legislative action to take advantage of inaction of PP. The group plans to promote a dozen legislative incitements with a marked left-wing character.

Anor sign: The percentage of Socialist voters approving Rivera (60%) is left only five points below one that approves Sanchez (65%).

The PSOE's leadership maintains that it prefers to stay with "official" data of CIS, whose photograph is more favorable (it gives a 23.1% intention to vote), said number four, Carmen Calvo, on Friday at an arraignment in Ferraz. The electoral strategy designed by Sánchez with political consultant Ivan Redondo is to consolidate first left and n seek to win by center left. In Ferraz y believe that y still have a margin of attraction among undecided of can — although electors of Pablo Iglesias earlier prefer Rivera project (24%) than that of PSOE leader (14%) — and that y will also receive disenchanted PP. According to ir plan , PSOE could manage to agglutinate all useful vote of left on eve of future elections with argument that it is only progressive force that can win PP. So far, signs point to stones on that path.

Remarks by Adriana Lastra, this Sunday, on PP projects and citizens. Atlas


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