The Catalan elections of 2015 recorded a record of participation of 74.95% that all polls predict that will be exceeded on December 21 and that could be around 80%. The experts consider that constitutional parties, mainly PSC and citizens, will be main beneficiaries of this mobilization of a antindependentista electorate that for decades has considered autonomic as an election that does not Affected him.
Secessionism has been mobilized for years in Catalonia and this explains participation of hundreds of thousands of people in various manifestations that have been convened since 2012 and, in parallel, ir presence at polls. Gabriel Colomé, director of Center for Opinion Studies of Generalitat Ente 2005-2011, Catalan CIS, considers that Secessionism could have touched electoral ceiling two years ago and that foreseeable increase in participation of four or five points does not Benefits at all. "Now y do not go toger as happened with Junts PEL Yes, but y are rivals and a part of that electorate can punish m or go to CUP," he says.
In elections of 2015 re was an increase of almost 7% of participation (from 67.76% to 74.95%) that placed citizens as second political force, with a record result of 25 deputies to detriment of PSC, which touched ground with 16. Now that increase in voters could also benefit party of Inés Arrimadas, says Colomé, but much more to Socialists. "The PSC is no longer love and has managed to deliver a clear message after crisis of three years ago," he says.
To that, he adds that fact that " message of Albert Rivera does not benefit Arrimadas or citizens in Catalonia against moderation of PSC" has to be added. This increase in citizens ' seats and PSC for increased participation would be detrimental to PP, to which all surveys augur unprecedented collapse.
The election campaign will be more important than ever, says Colomé, and elections will be decided in province of Barcelona — which contributes 85 of 135 MEPs — and basically in metropolitan Crown, where majority of population is concentrated and where The voter has traditionally been abstentionist. Citizens achieved two years ago in demarcation of Barcelona 17 of 25 deputies and PSC, 12 of 16. This explains efforts of constitutionalist parties during se days to campaign in se cities that, depending on electoral contest that is celebrated, vote in one way or anor. For example, in municipals y turn ir backs on citizens.The fourth election in seven years
The political instability of Catalonia began in 2010, when Artur Mas returned to Generalitat after two tripartite governments. The elections of December 21st will be fourth to be held in this community in seven years, in which it has not stopped to increase in a progressive way participation. In 2010 it grew almost three points (58.78%), but two years later, in 2012, it recorded what was record of voters until n (67.76%); it was surpassed again in 2015 (74.95%) and everything indicates that 21-D will be exceeded again.
The paradigm of abstentionism are municipalities like Sant Adrìà de Besos, stuck to Barcelona, where participation in 2015 was 68.95%, six points less than in whole of Catalonia. Or Santa Coloma de, where he voted 73%. A few months before autonomics of 2015 were held local elections and abstention in Sant Adrià exceeded 50%.
Colomé understands that number of undecided polls in almost 30% is actually much smaller. "It is people who already have decided majority vote, but who doubt between two options, be independentists or constitutionalists, and that will end up decanting in days of campaign," says expert. It is what is called useful vote and that will be disputed by citizens and PSC. "The PP has nothing to do," says Colomé. In your opinion, if PSC ends up being new electorate's refuge vote, re might be an electoral surprise.
And to all this we must add anor novel factor in this election since 1986: y are held on weekdays and that this could furr increase participation, because companies will grant ir workers on 21 December four hours to vote.