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The block of the Constitution slashes the triumph in Catalonia

Constitutionalists win in votes and remain between one and two independence seats

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The block of the Constitution slashes the triumph in Catalonia

Citizens face final stretch of Catalan election campaign as main dam for independence and approaches December 21 elections in terms of winning both in number votes and in seats. The Catalan electoral Panorama draws, for first time, a bloc of constitutionalist parties that surpasses in votes (44.9%) with independentist formations (43.8%). The secessionists, however, add more seats, although neir one block nor or reaches absolute majority. The Commons, party of Xavier Domènech and mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, reinforce ir role as arbitrator of situation; All this in a stage marked by a record level of participation, which will reach between 81 and 82%.

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As 21-D elections approach, it is more clearly observed that a sum of up to four parties will be necessary to forge a block that sums up 68 deputies, figure that sets threshold of absolute majority in Parliament of Catalonia.

The survey of Metroscopia for country, gives victory to citizens with 25.2% of votes and between 35 or 36 seats, ten more than in current legislature. The formation of Inés Arrimadas capitalizes in this way most of vote of protest for five years of independence process that has ended with autonomy intervened, former president Carles Puigdemont fled in Brussels and much of his ex-advisors in Pre-Trial detention.

Republicans will reach final straight with signs of internal weakness and second position. He leads independence vote for first time in a regional election but he is far from expectations he had just six months ago. The party of Oriol Junqueras and Marta Rovira adds 23.1% of votes and 33 seats.

The PDeCAT, former partners of Republicans in coalition Junts PEL Yes and that today are presented under brand name Junts per Catalunya, arrives unattended to electoral appointment. The list of Carles Puigdemont slows its comeback and remains with 22 deputies and 14.3% of votes. In this way, Republican will is made with much of electoral legacy of Junts PEL Yes and Puigdemont does not succeed in electorally profitable its strategy of escape to Belgian capital.

The Socialists remain in fourth position, y leave fall of last years and go back until obtaining 20 seats, four more of those that y have today. The comeback, which allows m to collect 14.3% of votes, does not allow m, however, to lead block contrary to independence, which is loosely in hands of citizens.

Catalonia in Comú, referent of We can in Catalonia, remains as fifth most voted force. It aspires to hinge between two blocks, but existence of cross vetoes between several formations complicates formation of any majority of government. The Commons of Xavier Domènech and Ada Colau achieve 9.3% of votes rising slightly compared to elections of 2015 and maintaining ir 11 seats.

In tail of most voted parties are, by this order, CUP and Popular party. The antisystems that have conditioned Catalan legislature and have made it to unilateral independentist way would continue to retain 6.4% of votes and eight of ten deputies who got in 2015. In case of PP, it falls to last position after giving up political space to citizens. Those of Mariano Rajoy and Xavier García Albiol remain with 5.4% of votes and only preserve between five and six of 11 seats that achieved in 2015, which was already ir worst result of history in Catalonia.

With se results, Catalonia is facing a situation of very difficult governance. If current dynamics of blocs between independence and constitutionalists are maintained, neir one nor anor can govern. The independenceists get 63 deputies, five less than necessary to reach absolute majority. The constitutionalists stay with 61. Both in one case and or would need a fourth party, Catalunya in Comú, which insists that it does not intend to support or a government that continues to defend unilateral independence or one with PP or citizens.

In this situation, voices are beginning to be heard in Catalonia that warn of possibility of a blockade and that elections have to be repeated. The parties are fighting se messages with last-minute calls to "useful vote" and those who do not usually go to vote in an autonomous election. These messages depart from assumption that independenceists already flocked to vote in 2015 and increased participation to 75%. All or almost everything that happens of this level of participation would be thus vote of constitutionalists that, at that time it was abstained in greater number.

Record participation

The Metroscopia survey estimates a share of between 81% and 82%, which would be highest of all elections (autonomic or general) held in Catalonia in today's democracy. It would exceed even 80.8% recorded in 1982 general election. This fact reveals intense current mobilization of Catalan citizenship. The Constitutionalist parties noted growing mobilization of ir supporters especially following mass demonstrations against independence that were held in Barcelona in October. They understand se formations that those manifestations served to break silence of part of non-independence society. The battle now of Citizens, PSC and Popular party is to dispute that segment of vote.

Constitutionalism has also detected expansion of geographical scope that is conducive to m. Not only city of Barcelona and its conurbation are mainly decanted by non-independence parties. The less populated provinces, over-represented at time of attributing seats, also record a rise of citizens. In Girona, where party of Inés Arrimadas only achieved two deputies in 2015 now can reach four. In Tarragona it would go from four to six. And even Lleida, historical stronghold of convergents, would experience an increase in vote for citizens. The PP is one who suffers most from this increase, but also independence parties.

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