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The block of the constitution touches the triumph in Catalonia

The constitutionalists win in votes and stay between one and two seats of the independence

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The block of the constitution touches the triumph in Catalonia

Citizens face final stretch of Catalan electoral campaign as main dam for containment of independence and is approaching elections of December 21st in a position to win both votes and seats. The Catalan electoral Panorama draws, for first time, a bloc of constitutionalist parties that exceeds in votes (44.9%) to independence formations (43.8%). The secessionists, however, add up more seats, although neir one block nor or reaches absolute majority. The Commons, party of Xavier Domènech and mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, reinforce ir role as arbitrator of situation; All this in a scenario marked by a record level of participation, which will reach between 81 and 82%.

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As elections of 21-D are approaching, it is seen more clearly that a sum of up to four parties will be needed to forge a block that sums up 68 deputies, figure that sets threshold of absolute majority in Parliament of Catalonia.

The survey of Metroscopia for country, gives victory to citizens with 25.2% of votes and between 35 or 36 seats, ten more than in current legislature. The formation of Inés Arrimadas capitalizes in this way most of vote of protest for five years of independence process that has ended with intervened autonomy, former president Carles Puigdemont fled in Brussels and a good part of his advisors in Remand.

Esquerra Republican reaches final stretch with signs of internal weakness and second position. It heads independence vote for first time in an autonomous elections but it stays away from expectations that it had just six months ago. The party of Oriol Junqueras and Marta Rovira sums up 23.1% of votes and 33 seats.

The PDeCAT, former members of Republicans in coalition Junts PEL Yes and which today are presented under brand Junts per Catalunya, arrives unattended to electoral appointment. The list of Carles Puigdemont brakes his comeback and remains with 22 deputies and 14.3% of votes. Thus, Esquerra Republican is made with much of electoral legacy of Junts PEL Yes and Puigdemont does not manage to monetize its strategy of escape to Belgian capital.

The Socialists are in fourth position, abandon fall of last years and go back to get 20 seats, four more than y have today. The comeback, which allows m to collect 14.3% of votes, does not allow m, however, to lead block contrary to independence, which is loosely in hands of citizens.

Catalonia in Comú, a reference of Can in Catalonia, is held as fifth most voted force. It aspires to hinge between two blocks, but existence of crossed vetoes between various formations complicates much formation of any majority of government. The Commons of Xavier Domènech and Ada Colau achieve 9.3% of votes rising slightly with respect to elections of 2015 and maintaining ir 11 seats.

In queue of most voted parties are, in this order, CUP and Popular party. The antisystems that have conditioned Catalan legislature and have devoted it to unilateral independence path would still retain 6.4% of votes and eight of ten deputies who got in 2015. In case of PP, it falls to last position after ceding political space to citizens. Those of Mariano Rajoy and Xavier García Albiol are left with 5.4% of votes and only keep between five and six of 11 seats that y achieved in 2015, which was already ir worst result of history in Catalonia.

With se results, Catalonia faces a situation of very difficult governance. If current dynamics of blocs between independentists and constitutionalists are maintained, neir one can govern. The independentists get 63 deputies, five less than ones necessary to reach absolute majority. The constitutionalists are left with 61. Both in one case and in or would need a fourth party, Catalunya in Comú, which insists that it does not intend to support a government that continues to defend unilateral independence or one with PP or citizens.

In this situation, voices in Catalonia are being heard, warning of possibility of a blockade and of elections having to be repeated. The parties are fighting se messages with last-minute calls to "useful voting" and those people who do not usually go to vote in an autonomous elections. These messages depart from assumption that independenceists already attended massively to vote in 2015 and increased participation to 75%. All or almost everything that happens of this level of participation would thus be vote of constitutionalists who, at that time were abstained in greater number.

Record participation

The survey of Metroscopia estimates a share of between 81% and 82%, which would be highest of all elections (autonomic or general) held in Catalonia in current democracy. It would surpass even 80.8% recorded in general elections of 1982. This fact shows intense mobilization of Catalan citizenship today. The constitutional Parties noted increasing mobilization of ir supporters especially in wake of mass demonstrations against independence that were held in Barcelona in October. They understand se formations that those demonstrations served to break silence of part of non-independence society. The battle now of Citizens, PSC and People's Party is to dispute that voting segment.

Constitutionalism has also detected expansion of geographical area that is conducive to m. Not only city of Barcelona and its conurbation are mainly opted for non-independence parties. The less populated provinces, represented when it comes to allocating seats, also record a rise of citizens. In Girona, where party of Inés Arrimadas alone achieved two deputies in 2015 now can reach all four. In Tarragona, it would go from four to six. And even Lleida, historical stronghold of convergent, would experience an increase of vote to citizens. The PP is one who most harmed leaves this increase, but also independence parties.

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