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The Constitutionalist bloc achieves in votes the independence

The Commons would have the role of arbitrators, according to the survey of Metroscopia for the country

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The Constitutionalist bloc achieves in votes the independence
Click on photo: probing on political situation in Catalonia

The Parlament that would emerge from elections of December 21 would be very similar to previous, with a tie in votes of bloc independence and Constitutionalist (46%), but with important novelty that secessionism could lose absolute majority by a Seat. The survey was conducted between 20 and 22 this month, when it was clear that re will be three independent lists and had been ruled out a unitary candidacy similar to that of Junts PEL Yes of 2015. The survey predicts a participation of around 80%, highest in Catalan autonomous elections, and records 23% of undecided, most women over 65 years and residents in province of Barcelona.

The Metroscopia survey predicts that independence would achieve 67 seats and would remain one of absolute majority, compared to 72 it had in previous chamber. ERC would be most voted party — with 26.5% and 39 deputies — while Junts per Catalunya ( PDeCAT electoral brand) would achieve 13.6% and 21 seats. The CUP María Siete parliamentarians and 5.9% of votes.

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To confirm this scenario would not be possible to invest an independent president unless he had support of Catalonia in Comú, which would achieve eight deputies, three less than had Catalunya yes that is Pot but enough to reach absolute majority. It will be necessary to clarify wher former advisors who are in prison can go to vote after taking possession and know what y are doing in Brussels, with Carles Puigdemont at front, if y cannot delegate vote.

Citizens is training that would benefit more from that increase in participation. Those of Albert Rivera would consolidate as main force of opposition, with 25.3% of votes and 35 deputies. In this way, Inés Arrimadas would capitalize vote against independence to detriment of PP, which would be last of seven formations of Parlament. The list led by Xavier García Albiol would achieve 5.8% of votes and six deputies, compared to 11 of 2015.

The PSC, on rise

The PSC would be anor party that would benefit from greater participation. The list led by Miquel Iceta played ground in 2015 with 16 deputies and now could obtain 19 and 14.4% of vote, figures very similar to those of 2012, with Pere Navarro, when Catalan Socialists defended legal consultation and agreed. The increase in vote would also be explained by support y have shown to socialist candidacy leaders of extinct United, with Josep Antoni Duran Lleida in front.

Junqueras is most valued leader

The vice-president of Generalitat Oriol Junqueras is leader most valued by Catalans, who give him a 46% approval, above 43% obtained by Carles Puigdemont and 42% of Marta Rovira, general secretary of Republican Republic. The leader of PSC, Miquel Iceta, and head of list of in Comú Podem, Xavier Domènech, tie in 36%, followed by Inés Arrimadas (29%), of candidate of PP, Xavier Garcia Albiol (19%), and of Carles Riera, president of CUP, with 14%. Interestingly, voters of anti-capitalist formation approve with 96% of Junqueras and Rovira, while ir candidate only achieves support of 39% of ir constituents.

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