The chancellor, to whom polls give a resounding victory in elections, will have to lead reform of EU in crisis, plagued by populism and away from EUU
Angela Merkel absorbs to Martin Schulz in race for Chancellery,
German chancellor Angela Merkel will win general elections to be held next day 24 in your country, a victory that will allow European Union to buy time for address smoothly pending reforms and define role of eu and in world.
With scars of refugee crisis open, populism of left and right handing out candy in a parade followed at podium by Russia, Brexit, president of USA tweeting and France -to make a short list - in hands of a president of production, Merkel is " bird in hand", "little virgin" to pray for stability in troubled times inside and outside Schengen area.
Proof of this is that when Pew Research Center Research, a think yank with headquarters in Washington, asked last spring in 37 countries about confidence that aroused political leaders, winner was, in all segments, Merkel. She said former president Barack Obama who would you vote for if it were German. Also awarded to Merkel, with three legislatures in tow and ready to equal mark of 16 years in power of late Helmut Kohl, honor of having become, after fiasco Donald Trump, in guarantor of western values. The chancellor, little permeable to praise, takes him hung as a San Benito.
"Merkel understands that it must manage lack of global leadership, but is not ready to be leader of free world", argues Ian Bremmer, a consultant for Eurasia Group. Too much effort and responsibility for a ruler so prone to offal and accommodative in great issues of geopolitics, which many believe it to be overrated.Who will be your partner in government?
In se elections, important at national level and crucial to future of EU, crux is not in confirmation of victory attributed to Merkel, polls, and already discounted, but in knowing who or who will be ir coalition partners and how will be distribution of key ministries.
it Is a tradition in Germany, where no party has achieved since post-war period to win by an absolute majority, that training most voted name chancellor and to assume portfolio of Finance, while junior partner to occupy vicecancillería, associated to Foreign Affairs.
According to latest polls, CDU and its bavarian wing, Union Socialcristiana (CSU) will be with 38% of election, followed by SPD with 20%, its historical grounding and populist Alternative for Germany (AFD) with 11%. The liberals of FPD will return to Bundestag after a legislature absent with 9%, while The Greens would get 8% and Left or so much. Merkel never pactaría with AfD and Left, so that and, given that SPD does not leave accounts to present an alternative government, options would be to repeat a large coalition or a tripartite christian democratic-liberal - green. The so-called "Jamaica coalition".
All parties to consider are pro-european, although with nuances that you will notice in Brussels, even if it repeats grand coalition. The portfolio of Foreign affairs would remain without doubt in hands of SPD and probably with candidate failed foreign ministry as owner and with best possible credentials for Europe, former president of European Parliament, Martin Schulz. The CDU will hold Finance with almighty Wolfgang Schäuble to front, as "guru" of austerity, of 75 years, do not think about retirement, and it is unlikely that reform agenda on table, Merkel dismiss him. Is in game, for example, creation of a superministro of Finance and a budget of ir own, review of architecture of euro.
Schaüble, more friar who cook, is waiting for chefs to French den in kitchen with a recipe to merge its refusal to assume debts of ors, and to give fiscal oversight to Brussels among many or ifs and buts - with need of president and Emmanuel Macron sign up a both. After German elections everything will fall downwards, but reforms that Berlin demands that Paris might take in reach and that will be anor hurdle to save between and by franco-German. France and Germany are doomed to ride toger to keep alive european project, but ir DNA are quite different.
The chancellor has said little or nothing during campaign about how to reform EU to make it more effective and closer to citizen and has not entered into foreign policy, except to proclaim that "one of biggest challenges of EU in coming years is to form a coherent approach to foreign policy". a Consistent, for it would be a common policy in Africa that serve as an antidote to migration. to Speak with a single voice, with Beijing, Moscow and Ankara. Be more present as a block in international panel. Also in field of Defence. "The europeans have to take reins of our destiny," Merkel said after G7 summit in Taormina, first with Trump.
meanwhile, his proposal to suspend accession negotiations with Turkey remains up in air, only with explicit support of Austria. And on Russia, fall of ministry Foreign in hands of liberal party, it is possible that Merkel is even without in-home support. The leader of FDP, Christian Lindner, believed that annexation of Crimea should be seen as an "interim solution permanent", which has caused great perplexity. It is great subject of Brexit, but discussion is sectoral and even in terms of hard and soft.