The EU changes skin. The Brexit, more or less channeled, is first divorce in six decades. But aftermath of migration crisis and euro crisis will mark new architecture of European project. These three issues will be discussed at European summit this Thursday and Friday. A hard debate is expected on migratory crisis, after institutional clash between President of Council, Polish Donald Tusk, and European Commission on account of refugee-sharing mechanism. And re will be no big deal about euro reform, because re is no government in Berlin and re is still great difference between what European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wants, and French leader, Emmanuel Macron, and what Chancellor could accept Angela Merkel. The umpteenth agenda for reforming eurozone will be released from summit. The first decisions will not come until June 2018.
No News is expected, however, on Brexit: first phase has been closed with a kick forward, and it is most difficult: to define transitional period and start negotiating future trade agreement; The unit of twenty-seven is highlight, to point that London has been forced to transfer almost all its red lines. "The real test for that unit will come when we negotiate second phase," warned Tusk on his arrival at summit.More information
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migration: disputes return. Migration is shaping up as star political debate of day. After an enthusiastic ratification of new policy of military integration, with a ceremony attended by 25 countries that comprise it, leaders will pass to dinner, most frank moment of discussion. The main dish will be migration, which Tusk has wanted to introduce with a resounding analysis: quotas for distribution of refugees between member countries are ineffective. It would be useful to get m out of debate to focus on preventing flows and looking for permanent ways of financing.
The proposal has generated discomfort, even between countries that share diagnosis. The most aggrieved is Germany, main driver of distribution mechanism as a way of distributing responsibility for welcome, which falls to a large extent in this country. In same group are Sweden, Italy and Greece. Ors, such as France and Spain, admit that quotas have not worked, but urge concept of solidarity as key to asylum policy. On or side, so-called Visegrad Group (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia) welcomes Tusk proposal.
As a sign that y are willing to cooperate, but not by integrating asylum seekers, four prime ministers of se Eastern states have met before summit with Juncker, and with president now more affected by arrivals of migrants, Italian Paolo Gentiloni, to talk about money. The meeting has been paid off with a disbursement of 35 million euros for African Fund, aimed at promoting development of countries with most departures from migrants to Europe. "We are willing to cooperate with considerable sums of money to protect EU's external borders and actions in Libya," said Hungarian Viktor Orbán on behalf of four leaders. Or Western states warn that this will not suffice to close debate, which is expected tonight to be hectic.
Euro: New Calendar and little more. Brussels has presented a package of proposals to reform euro, which seems least that can be accepted by Macron and maximum that Merkel could fit in. But President of European Council, Donald Tusk, has surprised with a brutal decline in European economic ambition: re is no consensus in Brussels between creditor countries (Germany and usual suspects: Holland, Austria and Finland, which They demand more responsibility and do not want to hear about more solidarity) and debtors ( periphery, which invests burden of proof: it wants more solidarity because it ensures that crisis has already been forced to take many steps towards greater responsibility). Tusk believes that re is only agreement to complete banking union, with a firewall for resolution fund that allows to close banks without causing serious damage to financial stability. Macron wants more, and Italy has been uncovered with an even more ambitious priority document.
It is curious: creditors want more solidarity when it comes to migratory issues, and y refuse to do that greater solidarity when it comes to reforming euro. And debtors of periphery want exact opposite.
Leaders will most likely argue, debate, forcejeen, and little else: only one agenda is expected, umpteenth timetable for eurozone reform. We have to wait for Berlin to see if euro's superminister comes out, conversion of rescue mechanism (MEDE) into a European Monetary Fund and anti-crisis budget. It is curious: creditors want more solidarity when it comes to migratory issues, and y refuse to do that greater solidarity when it comes to reforming euro. And debtors of periphery want exact opposite.
Because of narrow path that is in midst of this low-intensity war between centre and periphery, new EU must be built in next few years before next crisis takes euro ahead. Macron, according to sources consulted, is not going to press at this time: he prefers to wait for Merkel to form her coalition. The Tides change: Paris is now stronger and certainly more ambitious, and Merkel is politically more weakened than ever during great Crisis. Change bar: we'll see if music changes.
Brexit means Brexit. The European Commission has recommended that leaders give green light to divorce: re is "sufficient progress" in Brexit bill, citizenship rights and border with Ireland, because London has skipped almost all its red lines or because it has found a Linguistic manage that permits to leave topics more delicate for later. The Heads of State and Government will give placet to move on to second phase: we must negotiate a transitional agreement, apparently a couple of years, and start negotiating future UK-EU trade agreement.Crisis Ukraine
Dinner will also be used to discuss how situation in Ukraine evolves, a war in eastern part, which is largely instigated by Russia.
The dialogue is expected to close with political decision to renew economic sanctions that Europe applies to Moscow since 2014.
The problem is that Theresa May government, with major internal problems, has not yet said what heck it wants eir for transition or for trade pact. The unit of twenty-seven has been surprising so far. May arrives in Brussels asking Europeans to move; Europe asks orwise that May reveal its letters once.