Europe has all Great Recession saying that euro's architecture remains flawed and that it may not withstand next crisis. But no one is able to convince Germany: reforming eurozone has always seemed more like climbing a bike slope than stepping on a sports car accelerator. This time it's no different. Macron came to power almost a year ago and seemed to be able to achieve it. He even got solemn promises from Chancellor Angela Merkel if he made reforms that France has been postponing for decades. These reforms have come (accompanied by protests), but German promises are borne by wind: Merkel's party rejects all France's proposals to reinforce euro, according to a draft of a resolution submitted to Bundestag, Parliament German Federal.More information
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The Commission launched a battery of proposals in December to Macron's thread. But very long negotiations to form government in Germany and political panorama in Italy, with rise of right and left populism that can end Coaligándose, has ended with window of opportunity that seemed to open to reform euro . In March, European leaders raised steps forward in banking union and transformation of Rescue mechanism (MEDE) into a European Monetary Fund, but Germans have made clear ir rejection. A dozen even more orthodox countries, led by Nerlands, rejected any kind of advance in a document presented in March. "There will be little progress in June; Perhaps something cosmetic, "says a high community source.
Brussels also plans to present an anticrisis budget in near future, which should have a firepower of at least 30 billion euros, according to sources consulted. The German answer is same as always: No.
Germany has been through crisis peacefully. He spent heaps of money on his banks and suffered a fall in GDP in 2009, but slashes full employment, his economy pulls hard, is financed at negative interest rates and presents a very bulky trade surplus, which he refuses to reduce even though it violates Europ rules Eas. "Berlin may allow some defense and security spending, but leaders will have to agree to approve in June umpteenth roadmap," says Daniel Gros of laboratory of Ideas CEPS. "There will be very watery measures, and of course nothing of a macroeconomic stabilization function. Macron will have to use it thoroughly to sell that package as a victory, something that seems difficult, "says André Sapir of Bruegel.Scarce agreements
The two governments will multiply contacts in coming weeks to publish a joint proposal, but sources consulted emphasize that at moment agreements are scarce. The disappointment is phenomenal for those who hoped that Social Democrat Olaf Scholz would give a volantazo regarding policies of his predecessor in Treasury, Wolfgang Schäuble.
The Heads of State and Government had to approve in June a backstop for Bank resolution fund (a mattress to close banks without generating financial instability): The CDU has already advanced its rejection, although European institutions believe that Instrument will never be used. There should also be a political agreement to create a Mutualizado deposit Guarantee Fund: Berlin is opposed, although ECB says that cross-transfers would be very limited. For creation of European Monetary Fund, Germany demands a change of treaty: a chimera. "To see real reforms will have to wait for next crisis," concludes Paul de Grauwe, from London School. "It may be late by n," concludes Charles Wyplosz of Graduate Institute in Geneva.Power struggle in parliament
Just over a year after elections that will renew parliament, emergence of party of Emmanuel Macron in European Parliament is awaited with great anticipation. Although its natural place is oretically liberal Group, and re have been approaches with its leader, Guy Verhofstadt, French President is not committed to any of alliances already constituted. The idea of a new formation in image and likeness of Macron, defender of its agenda of reforms, appears on horizon as an increasingly viable possibility, but given uncertainty, it will be observed with magnifying glass any reference in this regard in its discourse of this Tuesday in Strasbourg.