- The entrepreneur who broke hegemony of Left
- The leaders of Chilean Broad Front announce that y will vote for Guillier
In a country like Chile, dominated by political center since it regained democracy, most radical left has hardly ever played a role. But for first time it's key. It is this group that defines Sunday's presidential election, which is disputed by former President Sebastián Piñera, a moderate right-winger, and Social Democrat journalist and Senator Alejandro Guillier. Everything depends on mobilization of left-wing vote of Broad front, close to can, which attained 20% in first turn. If he goes in mass to vote for Guillier and against Piñera, progressive will have a chance. Orwise, former president will win, who has his constituency more compacted right. Guillier has resorted to everything to encourage those voters, including final surprise effect with a campaign closing with Uruguayan Pepe Mujica, most beloved character of Latin American left.
Chile lives se days two parallel realities. On one hand, re are means and political and power environment, involved as very seldom in a much more uncertain end battle of expected. Just a month ago, it was thought that elections would be a walk for Sebastián Piñera. But disappointment of first round, when it drew 36%, much less than expected, opened possibility of a victory for Guillier, and environment has completely changed in second. The technical tie that polls give, with a slight advantage for Piñera, has resulted in a Encarnecida media battle in which Chile seems to play it all or nothing on Sunday. But at same time, in anor parallel reality, re is majority of country, which has decided not to vote and lives on sidelines of this fight. Since compulsory vote was eliminated six years ago, Chile has one of lowest stakes in world, below 50%. And after several political crises, with corruption scandals and illegal funding that affected all parties, it continues to fall.
So in elections on Sunday real battle is fought to convince people to come to vote. In first round y did 6.7 million of Chileans, 46.7% of summoned. In second always low, because many do not want to cover ir noses to vote for someone who is not your favorite. Guillier only has one chance if participation does not collapse. If he wins, he will need deputies of Broad front to govern, so what seemed a right turn in line with liberal wave that region lives could turn into a volantazo to left. The leaders of Broad Front have asked for vote for Guillier but with a dropper, and he needs a massive share of that world to win. Mujica tried to prop up that vote at rally with Guillier: "I support all progressives of world, because I spent my life trying to contribute to a more equal world."
Everything's changed in less than a month. If first round looked like a plebiscite to Michelle Bachelet, president of center left, much criticized in various sectors by some progressive reforms, now everything has turned and this second seems a plebiscite to Piñera. If Guillier manages to mobilize a similar anti-right vote that in Peru, for example, prevented in final stretch and for only 40,000 votes victory of Keiko Fujimori, will be able to surprise. It is not easy, because in Chile distance from politics is very strong and because Piñera is a moderate and not a character as hated as Fujimori. But Giro has been so strong that Bachelet, who a year ago was sunk in polls, has now recovered a support of 40%, proudly claims its reforms and has had a great participation in campaign, when before Guillier fled his image.
"With unscrupulous surveys, it was possible to create a state of opinion in Chile that Bachelet's government lacked support, that triumph of right was going to be overwhelming. But first round left in evidence that re is a majority of left center that wants even deeper changes. The problem is to articulate that majority. If Guillier wins should govern with a model to Portuguese, because broad front is not going to enter government, "explains analyst Ernesto Águila, academician of Faculty of Philosophy and Humanities of University of Chile.
"It will be a narrow choice, it will depend crucially on participation," explains Harald Beyer, director of Center for Public Studies (CEP) and former minister of Education for Piñera. "If it falls to 700,000 people in ballot, with a high degree of certainty Piñera will win. If it falls in less than that amount re begins to exist a possibility that Guillier wins. " Beyer believes that Guillier has it difficult to achieve all votes of huge spectrum that goes from Christian democracy to left. "The vote on broad front seems to be much more heterogeneous than is believed. In many voters re is disappointment over Bachelet's government, because it was unable to address an agenda that would reduce fragilities of Chilean modernization process. So it is not clear that he mobilize to vote for Guillier, "he sums up.
Eugenio Guzmán, a sociologist and Dean of University of Development's School of government, agrees with this idea and believes that Piñera will win. "The call to vote Guillier of leaders of broad Front was very lukewarm, for months y said ir main enemy was new majority. There is a part of broad front that wants to corner Guillier, as we can with socialism in Spain. Guillier has made every possible nod to left, including Mujica, but it has more difficult ", sentence.
Jorge Baradit, a writer of best sellers as secret History of Chile very active in networks, where he mobilizes against Piñera, believes that arrival of Mujica was "a Golazo" that will have its effect. "The enormous rejection of Piñera and support to edge of 90 minutes of Boric and Jackson [main leaders of Broad Front] indicates that vote should go to Guillier". Still, Baradit agrees with analysts that re is a percentage of people who supported in first round Beatriz Sanchez, journalist candidate of Broad front, but not support parliamentarians of this group, and no one knows how it will behave. It is y, that vote protest of left unhappy with supposed Chilean miracle, those who decide elections of Sunday, because all rest seems already very defined.