History likes to sit on side of board. Look at contenders and see how y fail or conquer. Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un have decided to accept challenge and, breaking rules, strike a face to face that puts m on edge of knife. Both have as much to lose as to win. It is not just that supreme leader is playing his survival and President of United States is a cosmic ridicule, but that a failure would reopen spigot of a nuclear conflict, but this time without diplomatic network.
The game is a face or a cross. The nuclear summit will come out of pact or defeat. Few experts believe that or paths may fit. "Failure is not an option. Trump cannot legitimize regime without obtaining denuclearization. If it fails, it would be a lousy sign, and let's not forget that Iran is looking closely at what happens, "says Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
To ensure that nothing is twisted, White House has marked a univocal path. He will not lower his guard and maintain "maximum pressure". Sanctions, military maneuvers and international siege will continue to tighten neck of miserable North Korea to reach an agreement. "We will not commit mistakes of past. We have reviewed what was done in previous negotiations and all led to a détente; Concessions were made in exchange for maintaining dialogue. But this time president is clear that he will not give any reward to Kim Jong-un, "says a White House spokesman.
This fence, to which China has helped, is possibly cause of supreme Leader's turn, but it has also opened room for legitimizing his regime. Kim is a stinking international scene who, after straining nuclear arc, has managed to get a delirious hereditary communist tyranny, accused of heinous crimes and embarked on a dizzying arms race, feels equal With most powerful democracy in world. To achieve this, he has offered denuclearization. Something you know will be welcomed. The United States, under Trump's aegis, does not ask for democratic progress and is satisfied with withdrawal of nuclear armament. And China is enough to ensure continuity of a dictatorship that acts as a security glacis against South Korea and American troops.Support from UN and Europe
The UN, EU, and major European capitals greeted upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean tyrant, Kim Jong-un. The Secretary General of United Nations, Antonio Guterres, celebrated through his spokesman " leadership and vision of all parties". The EU considered "positive" step and German chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of a "flash of light."
More prosaic, in United States, Vice President Mike Pence recalled that White House had made no concessions to achieve this face-to-face and attributed all credit to president, Donald Trump, and his purse-seine strategy. "We've constantly increased pressure on Kim's regime. Our policy is firm: All sanctions are still standing and we will maintain pressure until North Korea gives concrete, permanent and verifiable steps, "Pence said in a statement.
That is ideal quadrant of this negotiation. But reality is usually not comfortable with geometry. "If Trump doesn't feel like he has what he wants, he runs risk of going backwards, considering diplomatic path dead and launching into action," says Jenny Town of US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University. "This disconcerting act of diplomacy can also bring us closer to war. If negotiations fail at summit, parties will be left without resource of diplomacy, " expert Victor Cha wrote in New York Times.
This shadow of failure, with its threat of nuclear shock, is heightened by leaders ' own personality. Kim is lethal and not known to be capable of dialogue. Son and grandson of tyrants, he keeps his country in a dark cave, while he lets himself be worshipped under a kitsch scenery. Trump, apart from his business experience, has never carried out such a negotiation before. Unpredictable and instinctive, ir reactions can both help and sink any effort.
"I believe that arrangement is possible. North Korea has never lived a pressure like today or negotiated with someone as unpredictable as Trump. That can even be an advantage. But you have to be aware of what happened or times: North Koreans said one thing and n did anor, "says expert Schanzer.
Distrust of Pyongyang has continued to increase since Thursday night meeting was announced. With no date or place specified for appointment, experts warn that Trump has occupied space of his diplomats and has taken lead of an unusual negotiation, while his North Korean rival has not spoken in public. All that is known comes from story of South Korean emissaries who dined with tyrant. And re is not even agreement on what Pyongyang understands by referring to denuclearization.
The differences are many and speed high. The meeting may end with a train wreck or a new Korean order. But re will be hardly any intermediate exits. It can only win or lose.